By Joe Montero
Despite the absence of an official election date, campaign activities are currently underway. The West Australia Ballot is over Labor lost 18 percent of the primary vote, but the Liberals failed to convert this to change their position as a non-event. The federal election will now be in May. The Albanese government has run out of time to do otherwise.
Evidence that the result is likely to be difficult for the major parties is mounting. A survey by Australian National University (ANU) shows a continuing fall in trust of government and institutions. Dissatisfaction with the conditions of life in Australia is down across the working age population. More than a third record as dissatisfied. This is significant. The proportion is even higher across the entire working age population.
Only 21.7 percent of Australians believe their life has improved over the last year. Another 31 percent believe it has worsened. Only 16.3 percent believe their life will improve. A big 61.8 percent believe that life was better 50 years ago.
The survey ANU found financial stress is the main problem, brought about by the rising cost of living and a comparative decline in the value of wages. Those making a living within the political establishment are aware of this but choose to ignore it. They offer little. A pessimistic view of the future prevails.
A growing proportion of Australia, across city and Labor or Liberal, that does not care about average working citizens, when handing over benefits to the big end of town is the priority.
The ANU’s survey is but one of a host of other surveys and indicators show that bread and butter issues will be the main concern of voters when they go to the polls. They want tangible policies to deliver fairer prices, cheaper homes, jobs, and better opportunities for the rising generation.
For instance, an averaging model developed by political scientists at the University of Sydney found Labor stands to lose 6.5 percent of primary votes, the Coalition to gain 2.5 percent and the greens and Independents 3.9 percent. This might not be a particularly accurate forecast, but it does show trend, and that both major parties will be far short of reaching 50 percent. Labour, according to this survey, will only get up to 28.2 percent of the primary Vote, the Coalition 40 percent, and the Greens and Independents 38.6 percent. This means Labour having to strike a deal with the Greens/Independents to form a government.
Contrast this with the official line of the political elite and commentators who insist that the economy is going well, lives are getting better, and that plenty of jobs have been created. The narrative doesn’t match the lived life of so many Australians. No wonder trust is falling. Since it is the government and seen to have done precious little to address the bread-and-butter issues over its term in office, this is a special problem for Labor.
The Peter Dutton led Coalition offers even less, except it tries to whip up social division through fanning anti-immigrant, nuclear, and culture wars diversions. These find support within the Coalition’s shrinking base, potentially contributing to political polarisation.
Although secondary to bread-and-butter issues, social concerns add more fuel to the distrust of government and institutions. The one-eyed support for Isarael and turning a blind eye to the Gaza holocaust goes against the opinion of Australia and has angered so many that it goes beyond the Australian Muslim community.
Australia’s political elite looks far too tightly glued to Washington, and this makes many Australians uneasy. They sense that prospect of tariffs on Australian products will come to hurt them. The fact that Australia’s political leaders have failed to make any real stand against this threat will not go unnoticed.
This will result in the loss of some votes to the Greens and Independents. so will the retreat on cutting carbon emissions and building a sustainable future. Don’t underestimate the impact of the optically motivated attack on the CFMEU. Many union members of this and other unions, mostly traditional Labor supporters will no longer vote Labor and certainly won’t vote Coalition.
It all boils down to one reality. The declining reputation of the centre-left and centre-right fails to address the evolving challenges. New alternatives are gaining greater support, and this has the potential to explode. The pollical establishment is failing to meet the needs of society, and this will lead to a fall in votes for the major parties. The prospect that neither of these parties will be able for form a government is becoming ever more likely. They must form coalitions or become a minority government. Greater political instability is on the cards, and this isn’t necessarily bad. It can be the harbinger of change.