By Joe Montero

As electioneering for the looming federal election gathers pace, the political hacks continue to pretend that this is normal times and business as usual. A good indicator of this is the focus on two-party preferences as the litmus test for their predictions. Either they can’t seem to see the changing political landscape or wish to bury the truth.

Traditional political bases are drifting away from the major parties and threatens to become an avalanche. Behind this, is voters share a belief that the political leaders they supported are betraying them, and a widespread view is that Australian democracy is considerably limited. The turning away is in part a call for democracy.

Driving this is the failure to listen and match community expectations on the cost of living, especially the ongoing rising prices of essentials and unaffordable housing. There is the backtracking on climate, erosion of basic rights, and continuation of neoliberalism. Do not discount the ongoing impact of the clumsy and wrong handling of the CFMEU, which will probably cost a loss of Labor votes from many union members. When it comes to foreign affairs there is the appeasement or outright support for Israel’s holocaust against the Palestinian population, and the slavish kowtowing to Washington on everything. Australia is treated as if it was directly under the rule of the United States.

A consensus on these the key issues is the reality of the day, and the only differences between the two are little more than about how to apply the same agenda. No wonder the belief that Australia’s political institutions are managed by a political elite, more concerned with looking after the big end of town instead of those who voted for them, is so widespread. This perception is grounded in reality.

Supporting this is what a lot of commentators have called the “dirty deal” over political donations. Individual donors will be able to pay in up to $50,000, and for parties with national structures this is up to $450,000. Anything above $5,000 must be disclosed, instead of $1,000. There is a spending cap for election campaigns, but details lack transparency. The fine print is that the deal is framed as a way to lock out smaller parties and independents, while maintaining the loopholes that advantage hidden contributions from the corporate world.

Join this with the declining legitimacy of corporate media. Honestly, who still reads the daily paper and watches the news on television? Most of us now go online for our news. But despite this falling from grace, corporate media still has sufficient pull to interfere in the election process and influence the result. They happen to own all major polling companies bar one.

Paradoxically, this power adds to what looks like a stitched up political landscape, and this now works against the media corporations.

Most widespread is the belief that Labor has a dud leader in Anthony Albanese. One who lacks charisma and stands for almost nothing, when it comes to key principals most of Labor’s supporters believe in. Peter Dutton is even worse in his leadership of the of the Coalition. This is a would-be Australian Donald Trump who is making a mess of it.

This is ultimately less important than the party machines being tightly embedded with, and under the control of the one percent. They are in control, determine the policies, determine the two sits on the government benches, and ensure little will change. Acceptance of these conditions is the price that must be paid to be in government.

This is what is showing the small beginnings of an unravelling, which has provided space for the rise of other forces. And edged Australia towards minority government or broader coalitions as the new normal. The odds are that this will play out again in 2025. The party-political hacks know this. Expect more big guns to be turned against this, instead of their supposed political rivals.

What would be best for Australia? In the absence of any realistic alternative for 2025, the best result would be a Labor led coalition. Such a coalition is the best bet to bring together the largest number of Australians and create the best conditions for raising an alternative direction to today’s two-party consensus.

A government of this sort will be more vulnerable to public pressure. Labor’s working-class base is a critical demographic for shaping an alternative direction for Australia. The experience will provide valuable lessons towards shaping a path to this future.