Category Archives: Economy

Frydenberg signals intention to rely on old fallacies instead of a proper plan for the economy

By Ugly and Joe Montero

Yesterday, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg set the scene for a massive cut in government spending. The cornerstone of his presentation was the deficit blowout of $184 billion. The essence is that the money must come from somewhere. Continue reading Frydenberg signals intention to rely on old fallacies instead of a proper plan for the economy

Bushfires and the Corona virus have put Australia’s systemically failing economy in an even worse position

By Joe Montero

So Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has confirmed Australia is in the midst of its first recession in 29 years. There can be no denying that this has been a bad year. But seriously, the 29 year bit implies that everything was alright before then. It wasn’t. Continue reading Bushfires and the Corona virus have put Australia’s systemically failing economy in an even worse position

Leaks show government moving to pull help from workers and small business

By Ben Wilson

There is a push form the government to end support for for people who have suffered loss of wages and struggling small business, as soon as possible. Leaks filtering out suggest there has been behind closed doors discussion with big business organisations about this. Continue reading Leaks show government moving to pull help from workers and small business

We are still paying too much for petrol in the current circumstances

By Jim Hayes

Petrol prices at the bowser are still not falling in line with the plummeting global price, and it was only a few weeks ago, that the industry was shamed into pulling them down.

At a time when the Coronavirus is disrupting just about everyone’s life and bringing hardship, the industry came across as callous and greedy. People started to talk about price gouging and the need to pull together and share the burden fairly.

That it’s till going on is a scandal.

It is too easy to just blame the local service station. The reality is much bigger than this. Service stations are locked into partnerships with big oil companies, and the local level operators are only small players in the game, with limited power over price.

In its latest petrol industry report ofthe Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), service station operators are blamed for the still too high prices. Higher prices in the country are blamed on transport costs and there not being enough other service stations to provide competition. There maty be an element of this. but it only part of it.

Chairperson, Rod Sims says in it: “At this time the Australian economy needs all the assistance it can get, and lower world crude oil prices are one of the few positives from current world events”.

The overarching role of the oil companies and the big petrol station chains are left out.

Most of the price is set at the wholesale level. The oil companies take a cut from all levels in the supply chain, from taking the crude out of the ground, to refining, to distribution. They own each stage. By far the biggest portion of every dollar paid at the bowser goes to them.

According to the ACC’s own data, the breakdown of the price is 57 percent up to the refined product. A small 9 percent goes to the wholesaler and retail levels. Then the government imposes a 34 percent tax. These combined makes up the price paid at the bowser.

A large share of the service stations are owned the Cole Group, Caltex, BO, Woolworths Group, 7-Eleven, which means, it is a group of large retailers and oil companies that set the final retail price.

NRMA spokesman, Peter Khoury, hit it close to the mark. “Freight costs for petrol should only be 1 or 2 cents a litre, and that is being generous to the oil companies,” he said.

“Freight costs for petrol should only be 1 or 2 cents a litre, and that is being generous to the oil companies,” he said.

“There is at least some evidence that prices are falling in some regions, which is good, but overall it is taking too long for prices to fall.”

Western Australia’s RAC Manager for Vehicles and Fuels, Alex Forrest, pitched in to suggest oil companies should be prepared to cut their margins in the circumstances.

The point is that they are well positioned to operate as a cartel and engage in price fixing. This is what has to be dealt with to overcome price gouging.

The truth about Virgin and the dysfunctional airline industry

By Joe Montero

Virgin airlines is in trouble and making big news for it. The usually told story is that Richard Branson’s Australian operation operation has been hit by the Coronavirus, on top of the big debt it had previously accumulated. Both are true. But little is said about how this is related to an industry that has been dysfunctional for decades.

This must come out, if sense is going to be made out of the situation and a proper solution worked out.

Photo from ABS News: Richard Branson

I remember when big brother rival Qantas was owned by the government and achieved an unmatched international reputation for safety and quality of service. Then came a government with an obsession over selling Qantas to private providers.

Not long before this happened, I had been offered a job to join a research project on the subject at Melbourne university. I knocked it back. The outcome had been decided before the research began, and this was to prove that selling Qantas would improve competition and lead to lower prices and better service. The kindest thing you can say about this sort of research is that it’s dodgy.

A report came out and was used by the politicians to sell the privatisation. Qantas was sold to British Airlines. A government monopoly was converted into a private monopoly, given the right to operate domestically as well as in the international market. The private monopoly was made even bigger. Domestic operators Australian National Airlines had gone. Ansett was to follow before too long.

The evidence has always been that privatisation wouldn’t lead to the so-called competitive industry. We ended up with the overwhelming dominance of one airline, a succession of smaller players entering and leaving, and a few even smaller players holding onto niche markets that Qantas has little interest in.

This is the shape of the industry, and Virgin’s fate is a continuation of what has been going on for years. It was never going to stick around for the long haul. The Coronavirus role is that it made the inevitable happen a little more quickly.

Australia’s population is far too small. Most of us are concentrated in a few cities. There are few profitable routes. The most profitable by a long way, is that between Melbourne and Sydney. A long-term survivor must dominate this route and have a big chunk of the international flights market in its hands. Operators like Virgin have no chance of taking over from Qantas here.

Underlying this, is the high cost of keeping the planes flying. Even with the major cost reduction brought about by the introduction of 747’s, it has still not been enough in the Australian context to allow multiple airline to operate.

Realising the limit, even when being the dominant monopoly, British Airways eventually sold sold its controlling stake, and the industry became increasingly dependent on government to prop it up.

Generous dividends to shareholders and fat cat salaries for CEOs, came at the expense of retrenchments, holding down pay rises, reducing working conditions, other cost cutting measures, and government handouts, rather than from operating successful businesses.

Virgin Australia’s CEO Paul Scurrah is pushing a plan to keep on going. He’s been hoping to strike a deal a deal which involves a $200 million government injection to pay off the most critical part of its debt. Then he wants to gather support to convince the bondholders to wait a while longer, or accept payment of only half the $1.6 billion debt. It’s a long shot.

A fundamental weakness of the plan is that it’s no more than a stop gap. Missing is a strategy for longer term success. The airline had come into the coronavirus mess owing $4.8 billion. Unless a lot of money comes in quickly, the debt is going to overwhelm the company. And no-one is going to commit, unless they are convinced there is a workable strategy for future success.

The bonds had themselves been sold to raise the money to pay for the most pressing debts. It didn’t work. Not enough revenue was generated from the operation of the business to cover it. Subsequently, Virgin was unable to pay these bonds and the 8 percent yield on top of this, when they came to maturation. This is what is now pulling it under.

It is hard to see how virgin can survive, and the government is wise to not throw money into this black hole.

The airline industry in a natural monopoly, a limited market and high running costs, with no room for multiple players. Admitting this makes good sense. If there’s a will, something positive can be done about it then.

There are solid reasons for suggesting that when a natural monopoly exists in an industry of strategic importance, the best recourse is for it to be government run. This allows the use of economies of scale to operate more efficiently. In the case of the airline industry, it is easier to cross subsidise unprofitable routes, necessary for the wellbeing of economy and the broader needs of society.

Where the government is nowhere near ready to take over the industry, it could at least consider the opportunity to buy up Virgin at a bargain price. Then it can turn around and use its acquired company to set the pace in price and service. It can challenge the dominance of Qantas.

Why is the price of oil falling and what should be the response?

By Joe Montero

One constant during the present crisis has been a the downwards direction global share markets are travelling. On some days they fall more sharply than at others. The current plunge has been caused by a new spike downwards of the price of oil, which is now sitting at a negative $US35.20 to $-37.63 a barrel depending on United Kingdom or United States prices. Continue reading Why is the price of oil falling and what should be the response?

The present crisis is pushing Australia to make a choice about which road we take from here

By Joe Montero

It hasn’t sunk in yet how serious the social and economic impact from the Covbid-19 outbreak will be. But it will. There is no way to escape it.

A concerted effort to mitigate the harm and protect the vulnerable is a necessity. Many have commented about the rise in poverty in recent times. As bad as its been, this is nothing compared with what’s coming around the corner. Just about every household will feel the effect. Continue reading The present crisis is pushing Australia to make a choice about which road we take from here