By Joe Montero

Critics of the Ukraine peace talks between Russia and the United States in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) deny a critical reality. Russia has won the war. The refusal to acknowledge this reality is behind the insistence that the talking should be about working out the terms for Russia’s surrender, and that troops be stationed in Ukraine to ensure that Russia behaves the way in which the West wants Russia to behave.

To insist on this is to insist that the west has won the war. A delusion such as this threatens to delay the inevitable for as long as possible. And the longer this goes on, the higher the cost.

Any peace deal will be on Russia’s terms. This is why European leaders, and the Kyiv regime, were not invited to Riyadh. To their credit, United States President Donald Trump and Secretary of Starte Marco Rubio at least recognise this basic reality.

The main take away after the first day of talks is an Agreement to create a high-level team to continue extensive negotiations between the two countries to continue the peace talks and explore “opportunities which will emerge from a successful end to the conflict in Ukraine.”

United States and Russia to explore closer relations after Ukraine talks in Riyadh

Video from The Guardian

Russia may walk with an end to the current extensive sanctions, plus new investment, and trading opportunities with the United States. As far as Ukraine is concerned, there will still be serious bargaining. But Russia has the stronger hand. Yesterday, for instance, their chief negotiator Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected the proposal the sending peace of keeping troops into Ukraine.

“We explained to our colleagues today what President Putin has repeatedly stressed: that the expansion of Nato, the absorption of Ukraine by the North Atlantic alliance, is a direct threat to the interests of the Russian Federation, a direct threat to our sovereignty,” Lavrov said.

Lavrov also rejected the call to end attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. This is important for minimising Kyiv’s military capacity, and there is no way Russia will take this pressure off.

The call for Peacekeepers in Ukraine is really about stationing of NATO troops in the country. Given that this was an important cause of the conflict, there was never a chance of this being accepted.

Although there has been progress, most of the details of the discussions have not yet been disclosed. What we do know from statements coming from both sides, is that the objective is a permanent peace and not just a ceasefire. We know that Kyiv will lose a certain amount of territory, and that this will only be a recognition of the reality on the ground.

Russia will demand no inclusion of Ukraine into NATO and a stop to the expansion of NATO forces along Russia’s border. Russia will demand a major reduction in Ukraine’s military forces.

The eventual deal will favour Russia because they are the victors, and the other side does not have the muscle to change this.

Europe’s exclusion is a measure of its own impotence. The political leaderships of Europe are bit players, who have all along obeyed the orders of Washington. This includes Britain. And they have played this role counter to the wishes of their populations. The meeting in Riyadh exposed these governments and led to a counter meeting in Ankara (Türkiye), and Volodymyr Zelensky attending as a special guest. Its theatrics because it can’t affect how the war will end.

Another aspect of Europe’s dissatisfaction is the dream of the European elites to rebuild their old empires. Ukraine has served to flex a little muscle, to tell the world that the old colonial powers are back in action. They ended up with a slap on the face instead.

Recognition should be given to the war in Ukraine having been instigated by the west under the leadership of the United States as early as 2013. In 2014, they supported a coup (misnamed the Maidan Revolution) and an election excluding opponents. The gun behind the coup was the Nazi movement, which also enjoyed supported from the west. Attention was turned away from those who conducted pogroms against the Russian speaking population, along with the assassination of community and trade union leaders.

Under United States leadership, the west expanded NATO along Russia’s borders. They betrayed the Minsk Agreements that they singed to resolve the conflict and upped the ante, until Russia crossed the border. Ukraine was supposed to destroy Russia, and it failed to do this. The associated sanctions were supposed to cripple the Russian economy. But Russia turned out to be one of the world’s fastest growing economies instead and easily surpassing any achievements of the west.

The West’s defeat in Ukraine is a product of its own making. It was their doing that ensured this unnecessary war took place and resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths, the displacement of millions, and the destruction of Ukraine. Justice demands that the perpetrators fell the sting of their failure.

Prominent United States former Pentagon analyst and commentator, Michael Maloof, observed that the Riyadh meeting signals a tectonic shift in global geopolitics.

Securing a permanent peace is a must. This comes with international help for the rebuilding of a shattered society and economy. Troops and guns won’t achieve lasting peace. Only diplomacy and agreement will do this.

“I envision that this is going to be the beginning of the end of NATO, that this is going to mean that ultimately you’re going to see Europe maybe go into a series of defence alliances, regional alliances, rather than one cohesive entity of 32 countries,” Maloof noted.

He added that the meeting witnessed several points of re4cognition by the United States side. It is they and not Europe and Zelensky who are in charge. A move towards reconciliation with the reality that the unipolar world no longer exists, and that this is giving way to a multipolar world. The importance of Europe has been downgraded relative to the America’s, to which Washington wants to pay more attention as its own principal sphere of influence. Trump appears to want to improve the relationship with Russia.

This may even prove to be the beginning of the end for NATO. Trump has already said that support will be radically reduced. Europe is incapable of maintaining it on its own.

Anyone choosing a gun should remember one simple truth. This was attempted and it failed. They underestimated the will and capacity of Russia. Ukraine proved cannot win on the battlefield. The longer the fighting continues there, the more Russia will win. They are already on the verge of taking the majority speaking Odessa region in the south. This will cut Ukraine from access to the sea.

The choice for the west is stark. Keep the war going and continue to lose or secure the peace as soon as possible and minimise the losses.